Hi Deb - "Among natives that you might consider for your garden are the beautiful deep blue Monkshood (Aconitum columbianum)"
Without question, Monkshood is a native plant but it is also a deadly one. It can poison you by being absorbed through your skin or open wounds and there are reports of people being unwell after smelling the flowers.
Monkshood contains aconitine which is one of the most formidable natural occurring poisons which has ever been discovered. It was the poison of choice used to kill many a warlord and king in the middle ages. Fast acting and typically fatal. It was known as the assassin's plant. .
`I think the version naturally occurring in the western United States is not as toxic as the European version, but it is still a plant that is a known killer. Why put this plant in your garden?
Hi Rob – The blame game is a part of the human condition. An illustration of this took place in Garden of Eden. – When God asked Adam why he ate the “apple” when he knew he was not suppose to. Adam’s response, “The woman you gave me gave it to me.” It is almost like he's saying, "You know God it's partly your fault because you gave me this woman."
When Eve was confronted her response – “The serpent beguiled me, and I did eat." At least she was honest, but implied in her response is, “Hey God the creepy little creature tricked me so don't go getting on my case; it was not entirely my fault."
We blame others because it way too difficult to accept individual responsibility.
Here is a challenge in personal responsibility – Try to go a whole day without making any excuses for yourself. It is almost impossible.
When I taught the Careers Class (all 12th graders) at the high school – I heard a lot of excuses for why an assignment was not completed on time. If I thought the excuse was lame, one could turn in the assignment late only if in the class’s judgment the individual could perform a skit from the Blues Brothers reasonably flawless.
We had some great performances - a lot of laughs and a few life lesson about owning one's decisions. http://youtu.be/JFvujknrBuE
Hi Melanie - Great question. We are sometime guilty of tossing around terms without taking the time to define them.
A room night is defined as a room/unit that was rented for one night. If for example, a person rented a room for a full week, there would be 7 room nights, however, there would only be one visitor in town associated with those room nights.
HI John – You have a very good point. We are working on a visitor forecasting model that recognizes what can best be characterized as Family/Friends/Timeshares (FFT). During the ski season it appears that between 15 and 20% of the visitors to the area are staying in/with FFT. In the summer months the FFT factor may be as high as 40 to 50%.
I think we are moving (drifting) toward a better way to forecast the number of visitors that come to Steamboat Springs annually by season. No methodology is perfect but using lodging property occupancy percentages is such a flawed methodology it is likely doing more harm than good.
I think locally we largely ignore the estimate of the number of visitors from week to week reported in the Steamboat Springs Chamber Resort Association Lodging Barometer. Local businesses ignore the specific number and pay closer attention to the comparison of occupancy rate for the same time period year over year.
The harm occurs when folks from outside the area use the estimated number of visitors coming to Steamboat Springs and make business decisions on that data. For example, if one just used the estimated number of visitors published by the Steamboat Pilot based on the Lodging Barometer one would conclude that there are between 450,000 and 600,000 visitors to coming to Steamboat Springs annually. Of course with this many people coming to the area we obviously need 2 or 3 more coffee shops because we are an underserved market. Right?
The number of visitors the data independent of occupancy percentage reports supports is an annual number somewhere between 280,000 and 330,000. Likely Allocation by Season – Winter (Dec-Mar) = 46% Summer (Jun-Sep) = 37% Shoulders (Apr/May & Oct/Nov) = 17%
It is important for us to get this number reasonably right – not for ourselves but for others outside of the area evaluating business opporuunties here.
To Everyone – I am often guilty of getting way too detailed. Those of you that know me well – know that if you ask me the time I will sometimes try and tell you how the watch is made.
The analysis done by Yampa Valley Data Partners regarding winter visitations is not so precise that we can tell exactly how many visitors came to town – so I apologize for not rounding the numbers to the nearest 5,000. The key point is not the exact number but rather a comparison of the magnitude of the difference between the estimated numbers of visitors 2010/11 to 2011/12 ski seasons.
It is likely sufficient to say that the number of visitors that came to town last ski season was about same as the prior season.
In addition, a good friend reminded me this morning of something I have often said, “We need to be careful that we do not torture data beyond what they can tell us. If we torture numbers long enough we can make them say anything.”
When addressing this issue we often need to take a long hard and honest look at the individual in the mirror staring back every morning. Yes, we can complain about the government and we can vote – and we should do both, however, we need to be first and foremost aware of our own personal situation.
Ask the individual staring back at us in the mirror these questions: If I had some type of “emergency” that cost $7,500 could pay it without having to borrow it (“charge it”), dip into my IRA/401K or ask relatives?
Do I have a budget that I follow and do I know how much I am spending each month +/- 5%?
Of this monthly amount do I have 3 to 6 months of my living expenses socked away for a rainy day?
Do I have car/truck payments? The number one reason why we Americans struggle with savings is that owe too much. We work hard – we are not lazy. However – other people’s names are on our paychecks before it is even deposited in the bank.
The biggest thing in our control is car/truck payments. Vehicle payments can easily be the concrete shoes that keep folks from swimming out of their debt situation. Eventually after years of being in debt we begin to think being broke and deeply in debt is normal. This is in part why we tolerate that our federal government is in the same financial situation.
Do I use my credit card to pay for groceries? The myth that one uses a credit card to get “points” is simply a way the credit card companies get us to spend more. The financial intuitions of the United States are the smartest marketing machine in the world. People who think that they can outsmart them are the fools.
You cannot play with these plastic snakes and not get bit. The best thing you can do with these plastic snakes is cut them in half. Most stores including grocery stores still accept cash. Debit cards are OK; for the most part debit cards do not allow you to spend more than what is in your bank account at any given moment.
Locally, there are a lot of folks returning from Spring Break that realistically could not afford to go on spring break. Therefore should not have gone. As a result their vacation in the form of credit card bills and balances is going to follow them home for months to come.
It is simply good practice to say, "I cannot afford it at this time." No one is going to think less of you and if the rare individual does who cares what they think?
The Employee Benefit Research Institute recently released their 22nd annual Retirement Confidence Survey. It is not a pretty picture of the 2012 status. It indicates that 51% of those age 35 to 44 have less than $1,000 in savings or investments. In the next age group it does not improve very much. Of those age 45 to 54 46% have less than $1,000 in any form of savings . And for the folks age 55+ 31% have less than $1,000.
About 70% of Americans 55+ have less than $100,000 in any type of savings, investment, 401K, 403B, etc., and 69% of this group anticipates that Social Security Benefits will be the major source of income during retirement.
I wonder how many folks locally that fall into this less than $1,000 saved group went on Spring Break this week and used Visa or Master Card to finance their vacation? They likely went because everyone else was going and besides they deserved a break. Right?
I hope this group got well rested up over spring break- because they are going to need to stay healthy and active well enough to work well through their early 80's. What do you think the chances of that happening are? I guess there will always be a market for the cookbook that has recipes for 101 ways to prepare Alpo and love it.
This topic will likely make for a lively discussion around the coffee this weekend.
Scott W - You are absolutely correct - it does not take a organization with a fancy name and a lot of data sets to see that the economy is improving. Often times data does not thing more than to put into context what common sense already knows.
However, the challenge with common sense was best stated by the French philosopher Voltaire who is credited as saying, "That common sense is not all that common."
Hi Jerry – Exchanging the value current Accommodation Tax for the value of City sales taxes collected on groceries would not be enough. The sales tax the City of Steamboat Springs collects on groceries is about $2 million annually. The local’s share of the sales tax collected on groceries is about $1.3 million. The balance is made up of our visitors and part-time residents shopping at the grocery stores. (Keep in mind that a lot more than groceries are purchased at grocery stores and sales tax would still be collected on those items.)
The current accommodation tax would need to be increased from 1% to 3%. At that level it would cover the sales tax currently collected on groceries. If there was a desire to continue to use the accommodation tax to fund stuff like the golf course at the current level of funding the accommodation tax would need to increase from 1% to 4%.
Essentially in exchanging tax sources we would be shifting about $125 annually per local household in Routt County to the folks that visit us. Are there enough of them to bear this cost before it becomes silly? Not sure. I think we can all agree that there is a point that it becomes silly.
We are not helpless. The City Charter allows its citizenry to place such things on the ballot via petition. Would this be easy – NO, but it is possible - YES. Would it be smart? Not sure.
A 4% Accommodation Tax on top of 8.65% Sales Tax (City, Air program, School District, County, State) and a Local Marketing District of 2% would result in a total tax on lodging approaching 15%. It all comes down to what the market will tolerate.
Brita - Awesome! I know you well enough to know that you have a servant's heart. You would do the citizens of Routt County proud as one of its commissioners. All the best to you!
Deb Babcock: Use tough native plants for tough conditions
Hi Deb -
"Among natives that you might consider for your garden are the beautiful deep blue Monkshood (Aconitum columbianum)"
Without question, Monkshood is a native plant but it is also a deadly one. It can poison you by being absorbed through your skin or open wounds and there are reports of people being unwell after smelling the flowers.
Monkshood contains aconitine which is one of the most formidable natural occurring poisons which has ever been discovered. It was the poison of choice used to kill many a warlord and king in the middle ages. Fast acting and typically fatal. It was known as the assassin's plant. .
`I think the version naturally occurring in the western United States is not as toxic as the European version, but it is still a plant that is a known killer. Why put this plant in your garden?
May 21, 2012 at 9:12 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Rob Douglas: The blame game of politics
Hi Rob –
The blame game is a part of the human condition. An illustration of this took place in Garden of Eden. – When God asked Adam why he ate the “apple” when he knew he was not suppose to. Adam’s response, “The woman you gave me gave it to me.” It is almost like he's saying, "You know God it's partly your fault because you gave me this woman."
When Eve was confronted her response – “The serpent beguiled me, and I did eat." At least she was honest, but implied in her response is, “Hey God the creepy little creature tricked me so don't go getting on my case; it was not entirely my fault."
We blame others because it way too difficult to accept individual responsibility.
Here is a challenge in personal responsibility – Try to go a whole day without making any excuses for yourself. It is almost impossible.
When I taught the Careers Class (all 12th graders) at the high school – I heard a lot of excuses for why an assignment was not completed on time. If I thought the excuse was lame, one could turn in the assignment late only if in the class’s judgment the individual could perform a skit from the Blues Brothers reasonably flawless.
We had some great performances - a lot of laughs and a few life lesson about owning one's decisions.
http://youtu.be/JFvujknrBuE
May 18, 2012 at 10:44 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Data: Visitor numbers flat for Steamboat
Hi Melanie -
Great question. We are sometime guilty of tossing around terms without taking the time to define them.
A room night is defined as a room/unit that was rented for one night. If for example, a person rented a room for a full week, there would be 7 room nights, however, there would only be one visitor in town associated with those room nights.
May 16, 2012 at 4:58 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Data: Visitor numbers flat for Steamboat
HI John –
You have a very good point. We are working on a visitor forecasting model that recognizes what can best be characterized as Family/Friends/Timeshares (FFT). During the ski season it appears that between 15 and 20% of the visitors to the area are staying in/with FFT. In the summer months the FFT factor may be as high as 40 to 50%.
I think we are moving (drifting) toward a better way to forecast the number of visitors that come to Steamboat Springs annually by season. No methodology is perfect but using lodging property occupancy percentages is such a flawed methodology it is likely doing more harm than good.
I think locally we largely ignore the estimate of the number of visitors from week to week reported in the Steamboat Springs Chamber Resort Association Lodging Barometer. Local businesses ignore the specific number and pay closer attention to the comparison of occupancy rate for the same time period year over year.
The harm occurs when folks from outside the area use the estimated number of visitors coming to Steamboat Springs and make business decisions on that data. For example, if one just used the estimated number of visitors published by the Steamboat Pilot based on the Lodging Barometer one would conclude that there are between 450,000 and 600,000 visitors to coming to Steamboat Springs annually. Of course with this many people coming to the area we obviously need 2 or 3 more coffee shops because we are an underserved market. Right?
The number of visitors the data independent of occupancy percentage reports supports is an annual number somewhere between 280,000 and 330,000.
Likely Allocation by Season –
Winter (Dec-Mar) = 46%
Summer (Jun-Sep) = 37%
Shoulders (Apr/May & Oct/Nov) = 17%
It is important for us to get this number reasonably right – not for ourselves but for others outside of the area evaluating business opporuunties here.
May 16, 2012 at 11:03 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Data: Visitor numbers flat for Steamboat
To Everyone –
I am often guilty of getting way too detailed. Those of you that know me well – know that if you ask me the time I will sometimes try and tell you how the watch is made.
The analysis done by Yampa Valley Data Partners regarding winter visitations is not so precise that we can tell exactly how many visitors came to town – so I apologize for not rounding the numbers to the nearest 5,000. The key point is not the exact number but rather a comparison of the magnitude of the difference between the estimated numbers of visitors 2010/11 to 2011/12 ski seasons.
It is likely sufficient to say that the number of visitors that came to town last ski season was about same as the prior season.
In addition, a good friend reminded me this morning of something I have often said, “We need to be careful that we do not torture data beyond what they can tell us. If we torture numbers long enough we can make them say anything.”
May 16, 2012 at 10:09 a.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Rob Douglas: Our national cancer is growing
When addressing this issue we often need to take a long hard and honest look at the individual in the mirror staring back every morning. Yes, we can complain about the government and we can vote – and we should do both, however, we need to be first and foremost aware of our own personal situation.
Ask the individual staring back at us in the mirror these questions:
If I had some type of “emergency” that cost $7,500 could pay it without having to borrow it (“charge it”), dip into my IRA/401K or ask relatives?
Do I have a budget that I follow and do I know how much I am spending each month +/- 5%?
Of this monthly amount do I have 3 to 6 months of my living expenses socked away for a rainy day?
Do I have car/truck payments? The number one reason why we Americans struggle with savings is that owe too much. We work hard – we are not lazy. However – other people’s names are on our paychecks before it is even deposited in the bank.
The biggest thing in our control is car/truck payments. Vehicle payments can easily be the concrete shoes that keep folks from swimming out of their debt situation. Eventually after years of being in debt we begin to think being broke and deeply in debt is normal. This is in part why we tolerate that our federal government is in the same financial situation.
Do I use my credit card to pay for groceries? The myth that one uses a credit card to get “points” is simply a way the credit card companies get us to spend more. The financial intuitions of the United States are the smartest marketing machine in the world. People who think that they can outsmart them are the fools.
You cannot play with these plastic snakes and not get bit. The best thing you can do with these plastic snakes is cut them in half. Most stores including grocery stores still accept cash. Debit cards are OK; for the most part debit cards do not allow you to spend more than what is in your bank account at any given moment.
Locally, there are a lot of folks returning from Spring Break that realistically could not afford to go on spring break. Therefore should not have gone. As a result their vacation in the form of credit card bills and balances is going to follow them home for months to come.
It is simply good practice to say, "I cannot afford it at this time." No one is going to think less of you and if the rare individual does who cares what they think?
April 28, 2012 at 12:30 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Rob Douglas: Our national cancer is growing
Hi Rob -
Nice column.
The Employee Benefit Research Institute recently released their 22nd annual Retirement Confidence Survey. It is not a pretty picture of the 2012 status. It indicates that 51% of those age 35 to 44 have less than $1,000 in savings or investments. In the next age group it does not improve very much. Of those age 45 to 54 46% have less than $1,000 in any form of savings . And for the folks age 55+ 31% have less than $1,000.
About 70% of Americans 55+ have less than $100,000 in any type of savings, investment, 401K, 403B, etc., and 69% of this group anticipates that Social Security Benefits will be the major source of income during retirement.
I wonder how many folks locally that fall into this less than $1,000 saved group went on Spring Break this week and used Visa or Master Card to finance their vacation? They likely went because everyone else was going and besides they deserved a break. Right?
I hope this group got well rested up over spring break- because they are going to need to stay healthy and active well enough to work well through their early 80's. What do you think the chances of that happening are? I guess there will always be a market for the cookbook that has recipes for 101 ways to prepare Alpo and love it.
This topic will likely make for a lively discussion around the coffee this weekend.
April 27, 2012 at 8:26 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Data point to sustained economic recovery in Routt County
Scott W -
You are absolutely correct - it does not take a organization with a fancy name and a lot of data sets to see that the economy is improving. Often times data does not thing more than to put into context what common sense already knows.
However, the challenge with common sense was best stated by the French philosopher Voltaire who is credited as saying, "That common sense is not all that common."
Nice to see you commenting on the blogs again.
April 9, 2012 at 9:43 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Steamboat lodging tax plan to move forward
Hi Jerry –
Exchanging the value current Accommodation Tax for the value of City sales taxes collected on groceries would not be enough. The sales tax the City of Steamboat Springs collects on groceries is about $2 million annually. The local’s share of the sales tax collected on groceries is about $1.3 million. The balance is made up of our visitors and part-time residents shopping at the grocery stores. (Keep in mind that a lot more than groceries are purchased at grocery stores and sales tax would still be collected on those items.)
The current accommodation tax would need to be increased from 1% to 3%. At that level it would cover the sales tax currently collected on groceries. If there was a desire to continue to use the accommodation tax to fund stuff like the golf course at the current level of funding the accommodation tax would need to increase from 1% to 4%.
Essentially in exchanging tax sources we would be shifting about $125 annually per local household in Routt County to the folks that visit us. Are there enough of them to bear this cost before it becomes silly? Not sure. I think we can all agree that there is a point that it becomes silly.
We are not helpless. The City Charter allows its citizenry to place such things on the ballot via petition. Would this be easy – NO, but it is possible - YES. Would it be smart? Not sure.
A 4% Accommodation Tax on top of 8.65% Sales Tax (City, Air program, School District, County, State) and a Local Marketing District of 2% would result in a total tax on lodging approaching 15%. It all comes down to what the market will tolerate.
April 6, 2012 at 1:57 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )
Brita Horn leads Routt County Republican delegate vote
Brita -
Awesome! I know you well enough to know that you have a servant's heart. You would do the citizens of Routt County proud as one of its commissioners. All the best to you!
March 26, 2012 at 9:36 p.m. ( permalink | suggest removal )