Jump to content
WOW, how time flies. It was 18 years ago today that Bill Clinton denied having an affair with Monica Lewinsky. Guess that means I am getting old. Actually a good thing.
On that 2015 Record Warmest Claim
January 22nd, 2016 by Roy W. Spencer, Ph. D.
We now have the official NOAA-NASA report that 2015 was the warmest year by far in the surface thermometer record. John and I predicted this would be the case fully 7 months ago, when we called 2015 as the winner.
In contrast, our satellite analysis has 2015 only third warmest which has also been widely reported for weeks now. I understand that the RSS satellite analysis has it 4th warmest.
– Land measurements …that thermometers over land appear to have serious spurious warming issues from urbanization effects. Anthony Watts is to be credited for spearheading the effort to demonstrate this over the U.S. where recent warming has been exaggerated by about 60%, and I suspect the problem in other regions of the global will be at least as bad. Apparently, the NOAA homogenization procedure forces good data to match bad data. That the raw data has serious spurious warming effects is easy to demonstrate…and has been for the last 50 years in the peer-reviewed literature….why is it not yet explicitly estimated and removed?
– Ocean Measurements …that even some NOAA scientists don’t like the new Karlized ocean surface temperature dataset that made the global warming pause disappear; many feel it also forces good data to agree with bad data. (I see a common theme here.)
– El Nino …that a goodly portion of the record warmth in 2015 was naturally induced, just as it was in previous record warm years.
– Thermometers Still Disagree with Models …that even if 2015 is the warmest on record, and NOAA has exactly the right answer, it is still well below the average forecast of the IPCC’s climate models, and something very close to that average forms the basis for global warming policy. In other words, even if every successive year is a new record, it matters quite a lot just how much warming we are talking about.
Then we have scientists out there claiming silly things, like the satellites measure temperatures at atmospheric altitudes where people don’t live anyway, so we should ignore them.
I’m not claiming our satellite dataset is necessarily the best global temperature dataset in terms of trends, even though I currently suspect it is closer to being accurate than the surface record — that will be for history to decide. The divergence in surface and satellite trends remains a mystery, and cannot (in my opinion) continue indefinitely if both happen to be largely correct.
But since the satellites generally agree with (1) radiosondes and (2) most global reanalysis datasets (which use all observations radiosondes, surface temperatures, commercial aircraft, satellites, etc. everything except the kitchen sink), I think the fact that NOAA-NASA essentially ignores it reveals an institutional bias that the public who pays the bills is becoming increasingly aware of.
Hey Rhys, Sorry to have forgot to invite you. Routt County to the Quintana Roo - Now that's a road trip. Is a fun vision of you busting thru Mexico with a band of Federales chasing. Roads clear and dry but.... lots of speed bumps here. Would not be good for the underside of your German machine
I will drink to that.
Cheers from the ROO. Wish you and Jan were down here along with John B and Rebecca. Would be more fun then is legal.
Have to agree with Scott. 17 is a lot of people. That beIng said, thanks should be given to those willing to be involved. Hopefully they can divide into some type of sub-committees each responsible for a specific area hopefully using members personal expertise.
Chris, not sure any one said it was "wrong". Ironic, maybe. Funny, maybe. I am all for clean energy by the way. Eventually a method of producing cleaner energy at competitive rates will happen. Patience is a virtue. Isn't the old saying "haste makes waste". Hopefully the company that is deicing the turbines makes a ton of money. Hopefully that company is still around for the next Maunder Minimum. They could be really busy.
Like I said previously Dan S. if you ever want to have an honest conversation let me know. If you want to rant, troll and insult all those who dare not subscribe to your warped and not even fit for honest liberals ideology, go ahead. You would think by now even your pals at our local paper would have given you a time out and sent you to the principal's office. The good news for all on here who guffaw and giggle at your rants, we continue to be entertained.
and you can't find any humor in using carbon based energy to free up a wind turbine because of the cold. oh and tell me again how much in electrical equivalents would it cost to get the turbine working. Was it a couple of minutes you said?
Something else to make you giggle and grin.
No sign of global warming in the Quintana Roo. Currently 59 F, 15 C. Locals wearing hoodies, sweatshirts, puffer jackets and complaining about the cold. Tequila - si, margaritas y cervezas - no. The good news is no snow......yet. LOL
Last login: Tuesday, January 26, 2016
Contents of this site are © Copyright 2016 Steamboat Pilot & Today. All rights reserved.
Tablet version |