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A demographer hired by the Steamboat Springs School District to analyze its growth potential told School Board members not to expect significant, if any, enrollment increases for at least the next five years.

Shannon Bingham of Western Demographics reported his findings to the School Board on Monday, warning its members to temper hopes of enrollment gains with the fact that a lack of affordable housing will prevent many young families from moving into the district.

"Be very conservative in what you're expecting growth to produce," Bingham said. "I do not anticipate a great deal of growth in this district."

Bingham's demographic analysis is part of a facilities master plan being compiled for the district by Christiansen, Reece & Partners. At a cost of about $100,000, the demographic analysis and facilities evaluation is expected to guide the district and the Education Fund Board in capital planning and future expenditures. The Fund Board is paying for the master plan.

For his report, Bingham studied the district's current and past enrollments, where student populations are concentrated throughout the city and county and potential areas for residential growth. He met with numerous city and county planners and others with a knowledge and understanding of the issues surrounding growth in the area.

Based on his study, Bingham concluded that the district won't experience increased student enrollment without significant development in the west of Steamboat area.

"The west Steamboat annexation is the real wild card in this," he said.

But based on the conversations he had with city and county planners and officials, Bingham expressed skepticism that future development west of the city will include enough affordable housing units to attract young families and affect the school system's student population.

"It's not a Shannon-Bingham-from-Western-Demographics opinion," he said. "It's a Steamboat opinion. The people that are really looking at what's happening in our community think we need to be conservative from a schooling standpoint."

As with other resort communities, Steamboat's high-cost housing typically attracts older people who don't have school-age children, Bingham said, pointing to U.S. Census numbers that show the number of county residents ages 45 to 64 growing at a rate substantially higher than younger age brackets.

"The children aren't coming because the price-profiling of our housing isn't consistent with young families," he said.

Housing costs in resort communities force young families to move elsewhere, often to the outlying communities that surround resort towns. In Routt County, those outlying communities have school districts of their own, meaning the Steamboat Springs School District isn't likely to benefit from nearby growth.

The trend in many Colorado resort communities is for stable and, at times, decreasing student enrollment. Bingham is predicting exactly that for Steamboat's public school district.

Stable and decreasing enrollment is usually bad news for state school districts because the number of students they serve determines funding. The Steamboat, Hayden and South Routt school districts have been forced to cut budgets in recent years, primarily as a result of decreased enrollments.

-- To reach Brent Boyer call 871-4234

or e-mail bboyer@steamboatpilot.com